1  |   Order by index

Nov 2, 2001, 1:39am

Well, I have to admit I don't have "the answer" about what to do about
crime. Statistics, on crime as well as many other things can be as much
fun as those brain twisters that come in the books along with crosswords
etc.

I worked for a health related computer company once and one of the experts
decided to wow me with the following statistic: There is a direct
correlation between shoe size and mortality. Specifically, people with
small feet die younger than those with large feet. Her plan was to roll
that information into the questionnaire that we used to make longevity
predictions for insurance companies etc.

I asked her if the data had been normalized to account for infant mortality.
Lots of people die at child birth and there are all sorts of terminal
childhood diseases, these would certainly skew the data. Also, people who
are sick when they are young often don't grow as rapidly as they would if
they were healthy, not to mention nutritional issues. She got an
expression on her face that screamed "I hadn't thought of that!!" and then
excused herself. (I think she had already passed this great idea along to
her boss).

Anyway... on crime statistics. Stands to reason that capital punishment
numbers would rise after it was reinstated. People convicted while capital
punishment was illegal would not suddenly be eligible for it, only new
convictions. States often changes their laws to coincide with federal
laws, so some states had to re-authorize capital punishment after the feds
did. Capital punishment cases take MUCH longer to finish than lesser
crimes, for obvious reasons. Not unheard of for a capital offence to take
15 and 20 years to litigate.

Am I saying that capital punishment prevents crimes? No. All we know for
sure is that it prevents repeat offences. Does it promote crime?
Possibly so... but I would like to see some arguments for that.

I'm not sure I accept the notion that "enlightened" countries have lower
crime rates. I won't tag specific countries here as being enlightened or
not, but some things to consider: Punishments for crimes are extremely
severe in the middle east. Amputations of limbs for crimes of theft.
Life imprisonment for drug offences. Death by stoning for women who are
too opinionated. I think they have fairly low crime rates. Some of the
European countries (particularly the Scandinavian ones) have lower crime
rates. They also have fairly monolithic cultures. Everyone gets along,
because everyone is pretty much the same (culturally). The US is the most
mixed up mixing pot in the world. That's a good thing in my opinion. But
it does lead to some friction.

And finally, many say that the US being the most capitalistic country in the
world has lead to it being the most crime-ridden. I believe the
correlation, I just don't accept the cause and effect relationship. One
has only to look at the drastically different crime statistics WITHIN the
United States to see that there are other factors that are more important to
crime than anything that can be applied at the federal level.

Wyoming: 16 murders in 1967, population 330,000... 17 murders in 1997,
population 480,000... In 1998 the murder rate zoomed to 23. New York: 1967
996 murders, pop: 18 million... 1997 1093 murders, pop still 18 million, in
1998 murders dropped to 924. I think I worked that out to 20 percent more
murders in New York. Should New York changes all its laws to match those
of Wyoming? Or should everyone in New York MOVE to Wyoming? I'm pretty
sure neither one of those changes would solve the problem. (But if everyone
in New York moved to Wyoming, the murder rate in New York would drop to
Zero, so....I guess that WOULD solve the problem for New York anyway.)

I'm not sure of the old saw that says "statistics can be used to prove
anything". But statistics alone will not provide solutions, only clues.
Determining cause and effect is much more difficult, but that's what is
needed before we can arrive at useful answers to the problems of crime.

[View Quote] U.S. D.O.J., Capital Punishment Statistics
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/cp.htm
U.S. trends show that our capital punishment figures have been on the rise
since capital punishment was reinstated in 1976.

KCL International Centre for Prison Studies, World Prison Brief (Europe)
http://www.kcl.ac.uk/depsta/rel/icps/worldbrief/europe.html

The following numbers represent total inmate populations.

China: 1,427,407 (sentenced prisoners only) at mid-2000 (20th Asian and
Pacific Conference of Correctional Administrators)

Russia: 923,765 (at 1.1.2001 (national prison administration))

United States: 1,933,503 (at 31.12.2000 (U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics))


Áine


======MhM 23x20===Coolavin===Áine/AHNya===================
Imagine a moral code rooted in beauty, love, pleasure, and liberation
instead of order, control, repression, and fear.
==============================================================



[View Quote]

1  |   Order by index